{"name":"AqtaBio Pandemic Risk Agent","description":"Pre-etiologic zoonotic spillover risk forecasting at 25 km tile resolution. Backtest validation on the v0.1.0 historical cohort: AUROC up to 0.975 on held-out time-aware splits for ebola (per-pathogen, see reports/ebola/backtest_validation.json in the closed source). Aggregate AUROC, AUCPR, and lead-time distribution across the full 25-event cohort is the deliverable of the forthcoming medRxiv preprint (target Q3 2026); this system is not yet prospectively validated. Covers 8 priority pathogens from the WHO R&D Blueprint Disease X candidate set: 5 producing live tile predictions in production (Ebola, H5N1, CCHF, West Nile, SARS-CoV-2) and 3 with trained models pending tile seeding (Mpox, Nipah, Hantavirus). Hantavirus was added on 2026-05-04 in response to early reports of the South Atlantic cruise outbreak; WHO confirmed the cluster on 2026-05-06 (8 cases, 3 lab-confirmed Andes strain). Pathogen onboarding (schema, training, bundled model, agent card) ran end-to-end in hours. Tile seeding for hantavirus is still in progress, so this case demonstrates operational responsiveness, not predictive lead time. The 5 live pathogens are trained on GZOD historical spillover labels; the 3 pending pathogens are trained on epidemiologically-grounded synthetic labels (same standard as MenB) pending real-label retraining for the Q3 2026 medRxiv preprint. See `prediction_status` and the training-script citations on each entry. Exposes 19 callable tools including active-learning sentinel placement (`optimise_sentinel_placement`), pathogen-agnostic Disease X scoring, counterfactual hindcasting, live HL7 FHIR R4 round-trip submission to public HAPI (idempotent on pathogen+tile), full SHARP context support (Prompt Opinion `ai.promptopinion/fhir-context` extension), and a self_test tool that runs every other tool end-to-end and returns a structured pass/fail map for CI verification.","version":"0.1.0","url":"https://qjtqgvpd9s.eu-west-1.awsapprunner.com/mcp","protocol_version":"1.0","protocolVersion":"1.0","provider":{"organization":"Aqta Technologies Limited","url":"https://aqtabio.org"},"model_info":{"primary":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","scoring":"XGBoost + SHAP v0.1.0","training_cutoff":"2025-10-01"},"service_endpoint":"https://qjtqgvpd9s.eu-west-1.awsapprunner.com/mcp","supported_protocols":["mcp-streamable-http","http+json/rest"],"authentication":{"type":"none","description":"Public read-only tooling. Rate limits enforced upstream."},"capabilities":{"streaming":true,"fhir_r4":true,"prediction_status_taxonomy":"pathogens_covered entries carry a `prediction_status` field: 'live' = tile_predictions rows exist in production; 'pending_tile_seeding' = XGBoost model bundled but atlas tiles not yet seeded, so the prediction pipeline has not run.","extensions":["ai.promptopinion/fhir-context"],"sharp_context":{"supported":true,"fields_consumed":["patient_id","encounter_id","fhir_server","access_token"],"tools_using_sharp":["get_patient_local_risk","emit_riskassessment_to_ehr"],"phi_minimisation":"Only address.country is retained from the FHIR Patient resource. Risk is population-level (25 km tile). No patient identifier, name, DOB, or condition is stored or returned."}},"skills":[{"name":"list_pathogens","description":"List all monitored pathogens with SNOMED CT codes and geographic scope.","tags":["discovery"]},{"name":"get_risk_score","description":"Current spillover risk score for a geographic tile with SHAP feature drivers. FHIR RiskAssessment optional.","tags":["query","fhir"]},{"name":"get_hotspots","description":"Hotspot counts by severity tier (critical ≥0.9, high ≥0.7, moderate ≥0.5) for a pathogen. FHIR DetectedIssue optional.","tags":["query","fhir","aggregate"]},{"name":"get_risk_trend","description":"24-month risk trajectory for a tile. FHIR Observation Bundle optional.","tags":["query","timeseries","fhir"]},{"name":"get_top_risk_tiles","description":"Highest-risk tiles ranked by score for a pathogen.","tags":["query","ranking"]},{"name":"get_system_status","description":"System health, data freshness, live vs demo mode.","tags":["ops"]},{"name":"generate_outbreak_briefing","description":"Claude generates a PHO situational brief synthesising hotspots, top tiles, and SHAP drivers into an actionable narrative with 3 recommended actions.","tags":["genai","narrative"]},{"name":"explain_risk_drivers","description":"Claude translates SHAP values into plain-English causal narrative for a tile, with 2-3 specific recommended actions.","tags":["genai","explainability"]},{"name":"retrospective_validation","description":"Returns the recorded retrospective attestation for a historical spillover event paired with the publicly verifiable WHO / ECDC / national notification date. Backtest provenance, AUROC and AUCPR are surfaced in the `cross_check` field. Not a live model recomputation.","tags":["validation","evidence"]},{"name":"get_multi_pathogen_hotspots","description":"Detects syndemic convergence: regions and time windows where multiple pathogens simultaneously cross HIGH+ severity, flagging response infrastructure saturation risk.","tags":["syndemic","aggregate"]},{"name":"generate_fhir_bundle_for_pho","description":"Complete HL7 FHIR R4 transaction Bundle (RiskAssessment + DetectedIssue + 12×Observation) with per-entry POST requests, ready to submit to any FHIR server.","tags":["fhir","integration"]},{"name":"get_disease_x_risk","description":"Pathogen-agnostic pre-spillover risk score addressing the WHO R&D Blueprint's Disease X priority. Aggregates per-pathogen risks into a single 'any zoonotic emergence' signal for the unknown pathogen of the next pandemic.","tags":["disease-x","blueprint","novel"]},{"name":"get_hindcast","description":"Counterfactual timeline analysis. Given a recorded retrospective attestation, returns the actual outbreak timeline alongside an illustrative counterfactual: what intervention window would have been available if a public-health responder had acted N days after the threshold-crossing signal. Honest about caveats; no claim of cases averted.","tags":["counterfactual","validation","novel"]},{"name":"submit_to_hapi_fhir","description":"Live HL7 FHIR R4 round-trip: builds a RiskAssessment for a tile/pathogen/month, POSTs to the public HAPI FHIR test server, and returns the assigned resource URL plus HAPI's HTTP status. Makes the 'FHIR round-trip tested' claim a callable proof; anyone can fetch the resource back to verify conformance. Population-level risk only, no PHI.","tags":["fhir","interop","verifiable"]},{"name":"get_patient_local_risk","description":"SHARP-aware patient-local risk. Reads the Prompt Opinion `ai.promptopinion/fhir-context` block (patient_id, fhir_server, access_token), fetches the Patient resource via SMART-on-FHIR, derives the home tile from address.country, and returns AqtaBio's population-level spillover risk for that area. PHI minimisation: only country is retained. Designed to be invoked from a clinician's Prompt Opinion workspace.","tags":["sharp","fhir","patient-context","smart-on-fhir"]},{"name":"emit_riskassessment_to_ehr","description":"SHARP-aware EHR write-back. Takes the SHARP-propagated bearer token from the clinician's EHR session and POSTs an AqtaBio FHIR RiskAssessment resource to the same FHIR server, attached to the patient reference. Demonstrates round-trip context propagation: the platform's promise of bridging EHR credentials without bespoke token handling is verifiable end-to-end.","tags":["sharp","fhir","writeback","smart-on-fhir"]},{"name":"handoff_to_triage","description":"A2A v1.0 handoff. Takes a FHIR RiskAssessment from the surveillance side of AqtaBio and returns a FHIR Task that hands the matter to a clinical triage specialist agent. The Task carries a deterministic risk-band action (notify / surveil / routine) plus a disclaimer in note that the mapping is not clinical decision support; a public health officer must approve before any operational step. The triage specialist agent card is exposed at /.well-known/triage-agent.json.","tags":["a2a","handoff","fhir","task","triage"]},{"name":"self_test","description":"Runs every other tool with sane default arguments and returns a structured pass/fail map. Lets CI / pre-deploy / post-deploy check that all 16 working tools execute without exception. Catches dangling references and missing pathogen branches that would otherwise only surface in a clinician's workspace.","tags":["self-test","ci","ops"]}],"pathogens_covered":[{"id":"ebola","display":"Ebola Virus Disease","snomed":"37109004","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"live"},{"id":"h5n1","display":"Avian Influenza H5N1","snomed":"396425006","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"live"},{"id":"cchfv","display":"Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever","snomed":"19065005","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"live"},{"id":"wnv","display":"West Nile Virus Disease","snomed":"417093003","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"live"},{"id":"sea-cov","display":"SARS-CoV-2","snomed":"840539006","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"live"},{"id":"mpox","display":"Mpox (Monkeypox)","snomed":"50811000","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"pending_tile_seeding"},{"id":"nipah","display":"Nipah Virus","snomed":"27332006","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"pending_tile_seeding"},{"id":"hantavirus","display":"Hantavirus","snomed":"16541001","status":"operational","model_status":"trained","prediction_status":"pending_tile_seeding"}],"validation_claim":{"event":"COVID-19 Wuhan","model_prediction_date":"2019-11-08","risk_score":0.82,"who_notification_date":"2019-12-31","lead_time_days":53,"tile_id":"AS-025-45678","verifiable_via":"retrospective_validation(event_id='2019_wuhan_sars_cov_2')"},"documentation_url":"https://aqtabio.org/proof-of-concept"}